Dare Babalola
The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) has announced that Nigeria achieved significant macroeconomic stability in 2025, positioning the country for stronger economic growth in 2026.
In a statement by CPPE’s chief executive officer, Muda Yusuf, on Sunday, he expressed optimism that the gains recorded this year will lay a solid foundation for improved performance in the coming year.
Yusuf said the country recorded gains, especially in exchange rate management, inflation, and business confidence.
He stated that 2025 laid a solid foundation of stability, and with continued reforms and enhanced security, 2026 could see more robust growth and improved living standards.
According to him, the most notable achievement in 2025 was the stability of the naira, which traded largely between N1,440 and N1,500 to a dollar.
He said this stability boosted business confidence, reduced imported inflation, and made pricing and investment planning more predictable.
Yusuf added that inflation also dropped sharply from 24.48 per cent in January to about 14.45 per cent in November, strengthened by improved supply conditions and reduced logistics pressures.
He said that business confidence also strengthened throughout the year, adding that many companies that recorded losses in 2024 returned to profitability in 2025.
On fiscal performance, he said federal government revenues fell short due to lower-than-expected oil prices and weak oil production.
He added that the 2025 budget was based on assumptions that did not materialise, including oil production of 2.06 million barrels per day and an oil price of $75 per barrel.
Yusuf said that actual production averaged 1.66 million barrels, while prices hovered around $66.
According to him, this led to a significant shortfall from the projected $41 trillion naira revenue target and weakened capital expenditure performance.
He, however, disclosed that many states performed better, with stronger internally generated revenue, improved liquidity, and better project execution.
Reviewing sectoral performances, he said the service sector remained the strongest driver of growth, accounting for 53 per cent of GDP by the third quarter of the year.
“Telecommunications, finance, construction, real estate, and trade led the expansion,” he said.
He said the non-oil sector grew by 3.91 per cent and accounted for over 96 per cent of GDP.
According to him, manufacturing remained weak, contributing only 7.62 per cent to GDP and growing by 1.25 per cent due to power shortages, high logistics costs, unfair import competition, and rising operating expenses.
Yusuf noted that agriculture recorded a modest recovery, growing by 3.79 per cent, though insecurity and low productivity remained major obstacles.
Looking ahead, the CEO said the outlook for 2026 is one of cautious optimism.
He projected GDP growth of between four and 4.5 per cent, supported by lower inflation, stronger consumer demand, and possible monetary easing.
He said services would continue to drive growth, while capital markets could receive a major boost from a potential listing of the Dangote Refinery.
Meanwhile, he warned of risk factors, including insecurity, volatility in oil prices and production, high operating costs, fiscal pressures, geopolitical tensions, and political uncertainties.
The CPPE boss noted that growing resistance to tax reforms could also affect revenue projections.
