Dare Babalola
The Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), Dr. Muda Yusuf, has said that while President Bola Tinubu’s economic reforms have helped stabilise Nigeria’s economy and avert a deeper crisis, they have also imposed severe hardship on millions of Nigerians.
In a review of the Tinubu administration’s first three years in office released on Sunday, Yusuf said his reforms have left many households struggling with rising living costs and declining purchasing power.
The CPPE boss added that the government inherited an economy facing serious fiscal, monetary and foreign exchange challenges, making difficult reforms unavoidable.
According to him, the administration came into office at a time when Nigeria’s foreign exchange market was plagued by acute illiquidity, multiple exchange rates, declining investor confidence and dwindling external reserves, while public finances were burdened by unsustainable fuel subsidy payments and excessive reliance on Ways and Means financing.
He said the government’s immediate priority was to restore macroeconomic stability and prevent a potentially worse economic collapse.
“The immediate task of the administration was to restore macroeconomic stability, rebuild investor confidence and avert a potentially deeper economic crisis. Growth acceleration could only follow once the foundations of stability had been secured,” Yusuf stated.
The economist identified the removal of fuel subsidy and the unification of the foreign exchange market as the two major reforms that have shaped the Tinubu administration’s economic agenda over the past three years.
According to him, the fuel subsidy regime had become a major source of fiscal leakages, corruption, smuggling and rent-seeking activities, while the multiple exchange rate system encouraged arbitrage and undermined transparency in the economy.
However, Yusuf stressed that although the reforms were necessary, they came at a significant cost to ordinary Nigerians.
“The immediate consequence of the reforms was a significant inflationary shock. Energy prices surged, transportation and logistics costs escalated, production expenses increased sharply and the depreciation of the naira amplified imported inflation pressures,” he said.
He added that the welfare consequences of the reforms have been severe, with many Nigerians experiencing a sharp decline in their standard of living.
“The welfare impact was considerable. Real incomes declined, poverty conditions worsened and the cost-of-living crisis emerged as one of the most difficult consequences of the reform process. While the reforms were inevitable, the social costs have been substantial and remain a major policy concern.”
Despite the hardships, Yusuf argued that the reforms have produced important signs of macroeconomic recovery.
He noted that Nigeria’s external reserves have improved significantly and are approaching the $50 billion mark, while the country has maintained a trade surplus and witnessed renewed investor confidence.
According to him, exchange rate volatility has moderated considerably since 2025, reflecting improvements in market confidence and foreign exchange management.
The CPPE boss also pointed to progress in inflation management, noting that the economy recorded eleven consecutive months of disinflation between early 2025 and February 2026 before fresh inflationary pressures emerged following the Iran–U.S.–Israel conflict, which pushed up global crude oil prices and increased domestic transportation and energy costs.
Yusuf further highlighted the remarkable performance of the Nigerian capital market under the reform period.
He said the Nigerian Exchange All-Share Index rose from approximately 55,700 points in 2023 to over 254,000 points in 2026, while market capitalisation increased from about ₦30 trillion to more than ₦160 trillion.
He also listed the discontinuation of Ways and Means financing and the emergence of domestic refining capacity through the Dangote Refinery as key achievements of the administration.
According to him, local refining has reduced Nigeria’s dependence on imported petroleum products, improved energy security and strengthened foreign exchange conservation efforts.
Nevertheless, Yusuf warned that the gains recorded at the macroeconomic level have not yet translated into meaningful improvements in the lives of ordinary Nigerians.
“The most significant concern is that macroeconomic stabilization has yet to translate into broad-based welfare gains. Inflation remains elevated, purchasing power remains weak and consumer confidence continues to be fragile,” he said.
He argued that the Tinubu administration must now focus on ensuring that the benefits of economic reforms reach households through job creation, higher incomes and poverty reduction.
“The challenge before the administration is no longer merely one of economic stabilization; it is the imperative of converting reform gains into jobs, higher incomes, lower poverty and a better quality of life for Nigerians.”
Yusuf also identified insecurity as a major obstacle to economic recovery, warning that persistent attacks on farming communities continue to threaten food production and worsen inflationary pressures.
“No economy can achieve food security when farmers face persistent threats to their lives and livelihoods,” he said.
He added that insecurity goes beyond economic losses, creating psychological trauma, weakening social cohesion and undermining citizens’ confidence in their safety and future.
The economist further expressed concerns over Nigeria’s rising public debt, which stood at ₦159.3 trillion as of December 2025, saying debt sustainability remains a critical challenge despite efforts to improve fiscal discipline.
On governance, Yusuf stressed that public support for reforms would depend largely on transparency, accountability and prudent management of public resources.
“As citizens continue to make significant sacrifices in support of economic reforms, expectations for fiscal prudence, transparency and accountability in the management of public resources have risen correspondingly,” he stated.
“The long-term sustainability of economic reforms rests on the principle of shared sacrifice. Public confidence is strengthened when citizens perceive that the costs of adjustment are borne not only by households and businesses, but also by the political and governing elite.”
Looking ahead, Yusuf said the next phase of the administration’s economic programme must move beyond stabilisation and focus on inclusive growth, improved productivity, food security, industrial competitiveness and better living standards for Nigerians.
He maintained that the ultimate success of the reforms would not be judged by reserve accumulation, exchange rate stability or stock market performance alone, but by their impact on the daily lives of citizens.
“Macroeconomic stability may rescue an economy from the brink, but inclusive prosperity is what secures public confidence, strengthens social cohesion and sustains the reform journey,” he said.
